Does Tesla stock have a future?
Based on 34 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Tesla in the last 3 months. The average price target is $220.26 with a high forecast of $345.00 and a low forecast of $23.53. The average price target represents a 9.88% change from the last price of $200.45.
Wall Street expects Tesla earnings per share of just $3.07 a share in 2024, according to FactSet. That would be a 1% decline vs. last year's $3.12. That was a 23% decline vs. 2022. Analyst project a solid increase in 2025 to $4.24 a share.
With its 3-star rating, we believe Tesla's shares are fairly valued compared to our long-term fair value estimate. In 2024, we forecast Tesla will see a far slower growth rate, with deliveries increasing just 10% to a little under 2 million, from a little over 1.8 million in 2023.
Tesla shares have gone through even worse turmoil previously, but have eventually recovered. That said, the company faces several uncertainties and unknowns in the near term, which makes the short-term outlook quite hazy.
Tesla's (TSLA) financial results for the last quarter also disappointed, with adjusted earnings per share down 40% from a year earlier, and revenue, which rose 3% to top $25 billion, coming in below market forecasts.
From a fiscal-2023 base, we forecast Tesla earnings per share grow at a 27% compound annual growth rate through fiscal 2030, achieving $5/share in late fiscal 2025, $10/share in late fiscal 2027, and $15/share by mid fiscal 2029.
However, Wall Street is not predicting much profit growth for Tesla in 2024. Earnings are expected to bounce back from 2023's 25% decline to $3.06 a share. But compared with 2022, analysts see 2024 EPS down 6% to $3.83 even with revenue increasing 45% to $118.51 billion.
Tesla has a conensus rating of Hold which is based on 12 buy ratings, 17 hold ratings and 5 sell ratings. The average price target for Tesla is $220.26. This is based on 34 Wall Streets Analysts 12-month price targets, issued in the past 3 months.
Adding to the challenges, Tesla's management has offered a cautious outlook for 2024. The company anticipates a significant decrease in volumes compared to 2023, falling well below its targeted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50%.
Is Tesla stock a Buy, Sell or Hold? Tesla stock has received a consensus rating of buy. The average rating score is and is based on 48 buy ratings, 34 hold ratings, and 11 sell ratings.
Will Tesla retain value?
The Tesla Model 3 has the best value retention at a five-year depreciation rate of 42.9%. That outpaces the average for the segment by 6.2 percentage points, but still lags the industry average of 38.8%.
| Company Stock | Market Cap (crore) | Profit Growth (CAGR) |
|---|---|---|
| HDFC Bank | ₹11,69,000 | 19.9% |
| Hindustan Unilever | ₹6,04,408 | 12.4% |
| Infosys | ₹6,79,000 | 8.9% |
| Reliance Industries | ₹18,40,000 | 10.2% |
According to our current TSLA stock forecast, the value of Tesla shares will rise by 8.41% and reach $ 209.85 per share by February 17, 2024. According to our technical indicators, the current sentiment is Bearish while the Fear & Greed Index is showing 39 (Fear).
The electric vehicle (EV) maker, Tesla, has a number of key risks that it will face in the next 5-10 years. Notable risks include Tesla cars being too expensive with tax breaks and that the construction of its Gigafactory (battery factory) taking longer than expected.
Investing in Tesla requires wits, nerves of steel, and a solid framework. That's more true than ever in 2024. We recommended buying Tesla stock in January 2023, arguing, in part, that declines linked to Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter, now called X, and electric-vehicle price cuts were overdone.
He forecasts Tesla stock to gain about 550% to hit $1,200 a share by 2030, and for SpaceX to triple in valuation over the same period, according to a recent interview conducted by Bloomberg. Baron runs the Baron Focused Growth Fund, which counted Tesla and SpaceX as its largest holdings as of December 31, 2023.
Additionally, Gov Capital, another algorithm-based forecasting service, has a baseline Tesla stock 5-year forecast of $2,326.138. Both of these estimations indicate a sizeable upside potential for TSLA within the next five years, if those targets are hit. However, many things can happen during that period.
A real long-term growth opportunity
With the ability to generate positive cash flow in the notoriously capital-intensive auto industry, Tesla is reinvesting profits to push technological boundaries, widen its economic moat, and cement its spot at the top.
The newest price target for Tesla shares for Tesla came in April 2023, with a call for the stock price to hit $2,000 in 2027 and the company's market capitalization to hit $4.4 trillion. The bear-and-bull case for Tesla stock from Ark Invest are $1,400 and $2,500, respectively, for the same time period.
Tesla Bulls Wary Of 2024
The consensus among analysts for 2024 has Tesla EPS down to $3.31 as of Thursday afternoon. Before Q4 earnings, Wall Street had Tesla 2024 earnings at $3.63 a share. The consensus view is now 12% below where it was at the end of 2023 and has come down 40% since the end of January 2023.
What will Tesla stock be worth in 2040?
The S&P 500 index had an average annual return of 11.13% between 1973 and 2023. If Tesla stock were to grow at this average rate until 2040, TSLA stock would be worth $1,169 in 2040. This would be nearly 3x the stock's current all-time high price of $407.
Based on analyst ratings, Nvidia's 12-month average price target is $703.30. What is NVDA's upside potential, based on the analysts' average price target? Currently there's no upside potential for NVDA, based on the analysts' average price target.
Big Tesla investors are bearish on the stock over the next 6-12 months, Morgan Stanley's Jonas says. An informal poll of Tesla (TSLA) institutional investors done by Morgan Stanley found many are bearish and expect the stock to underperform over the next six months.
| STOCK | ACTION | TRADE PRICE |
|---|---|---|
| PEL | BUY | 883 |
| COALINDIA | BUY | 466 |
| ACCELYA | BUY | 1972 |
| KEC | BUY | 696 |
| High | $345.00 |
|---|---|
| Low | $68.00 |
| Average | $214.76 |
| Current Price | $188.13 |
