How do you profit from falling interest rates?
Falling interest rates often go hand-in-hand with rising earnings, which historically has particularly benefited cyclical sectors. The consumer discretionary, technology, real estate, and financial sectors have historically been especially likely to outperform the market when rates fall and earnings rise.
- Refinance your mortgage. ...
- Buy a home. ...
- Choose a fixed rate mortgage. ...
- Buy your second home now. ...
- Refinance your student loan. ...
- Refinance your car loan. ...
- Consolidate your debt. ...
- Pay off high interest credit card balances or move those balances.
Falling interest rates often go hand-in-hand with rising earnings, which historically has particularly benefited cyclical sectors. The consumer discretionary, technology, real estate, and financial sectors have historically been especially likely to outperform the market when rates fall and earnings rise.
Low interest rates mean more spending money in consumers' pockets. That also means they may be willing to make larger purchases and will borrow more, which spurs demand for household goods. This is an added benefit to financial institutions because banks are able to lend more.
You can capitalize on higher rates by purchasing real estate and selling off unneeded assets. Short-term and floating-rate bonds are also suitable investments during rising rates as they reduce portfolio volatility. Hedge your bets by investing in inflation-proof investments and instruments with credit-based yields.
Your investments can also benefit from lower interest rates. Since lower rates incentivize borrowing, businesses can make investments in equipment, real estate, and other expansions that can help increase stock prices. On the other hand, lower interest rates tend to reduce returns on bonds.
The lower the interest rate, the more willing people are to borrow money to make big purchases, such as houses or cars. When consumers pay less in interest, this gives them more money to spend, which can create a ripple effect of increased spending throughout the economy.
Along with generating a larger income stream, such bonds may be subject to less interest rate risk, as there may be a reduced chance of rates moving significantly higher from current levels. However, even when interest rates are low, bonds can still be appropriate for inclusion in a well-diversified portfolio.
- Health care.
- Real estate.
- Materials.
- Energy.
It prompts consumers to postpone purchases due to a view that things will soon cost less. Businesses respond to falling demand by cutting prices, which reduces their profits and investment. Unemployment climbs. As prices fall, real debt burdens climb.
What are the downsides of lowering interest rates?
Low interest rates also negatively affect people who live off the interest income from their savings, so they cut back their spending. When a large group of people, such as baby boomer retirees, reduce their spending, overall economic activity slows. That can act to cut your sales.
The winners
Unsurprisingly, bond buyers, lenders, and savers all benefit from higher rates in the early days. Bond yields, in particular, typically move higher even before the Fed raises rates, and bond investors can earn more without taking on additional default risk since the economy is still going strong.
- High-yield savings accounts.
- Certificates of deposit (CDs) and share certificates.
- Money market accounts.
- Treasury securities.
- Series I bonds.
- Municipal bonds.
- Corporate bonds.
- Money market funds.
They make money from what they call the spread, or the difference between the interest rate they pay for deposits and the interest rate they receive on the loans they make. They earn interest on the securities they hold.
Along with Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRK-B), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), and Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C), The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE:SCHW) is one of the biggest stocks that benefit from high interest rates.
Inflation allows borrowers to pay lenders back with money worth less than when it was originally borrowed, which benefits borrowers. When inflation causes higher prices, the demand for credit increases, raising interest rates, which benefits lenders.
Now that inflation has slowed, mortgage rates are expected to fall this year. In its latest forecast, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicted that 30-year rates will drop to 6.1% by the end of 2024.
Product | Interest Rate | APR |
---|---|---|
30-Year Fixed Rate | 6.87% | 6.92% |
20-Year Fixed Rate | 6.63% | 6.69% |
15-Year Fixed Rate | 6.32% | 6.39% |
10-Year Fixed Rate | 6.20% | 6.29% |
Do Interest Rates Rise or Fall in a Recession? Interest rates usually fall during a recession. Historically, the economy typically grows until interest rates are hiked to cool down price inflation and the soaring cost of living. Often, this results in a recession and a return to low interest rates to stimulate growth.
Yet interest rates are still a consideration for equity investors. Stock prices tended to track with bond yield trends over the course of 2023. When interest rates rose, stock prices retreated, and when rates fell, stocks reacted favorably.
Does raising interest rates actually lower inflation?
How does increasing interest rates reduce inflation? Increasing the bank rate is like a lever for slowing down inflation. By raising it, people should, in theory, start to save more and borrow less, which will push down demand for goods and services and lead to lower prices.
Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.
- Vanguard Core-Plus Bond ETF (VPLS)
- iShares MBS ETF (MBB)
- Invesco Ultra Short Duration ETF (GSY)
- SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL)
- iShares Aaa – A Rated Corporate Bond ETF (QLTA)
- Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF (SCHO)
- Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Treasury ETF (SCHR)
- Schwab Long-Term U.S. Treasury ETF (SCHQ)
Unless you are set on holding your bonds until maturity despite the upcoming availability of more lucrative options, a looming interest rate hike should be a clear sell signal.
Wayfair Inc. (NYSE:W), Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTCH), and Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) are some of the stocks that will double in 2024, besides StoneCo Ltd.