Has the S&P 500 ever lost money over a 10 year period?
The term “Lost Decade for Stocks” refers to the ten-year period from 12/31/1999 through 12/31/2009, when the S&P 500® generated an annualized total return of -0.9% over the period.
- The S&P 500 returned 163% over the last decade, compounding at 10.2% annually. ...
- The Dow Jones returned 131% over the past decade, compounding at 8.7% annually. ...
- The Nasdaq returned 264% over the last decade, compounding at 13.8% annually.
In 2002, the fallout from frenzied investments in internet technology companies and the subsequent implosion of the dot-com bubble caused the S&P 500 to drop 23.4%. And in 2008, the collapse of the U.S. housing market and the subsequent global financial crisis caused the S&P 500 to fall 38.5%.
While there are few certainties in the financial world, there's virtually no chance that an index fund will ever lose all of its value. One reason for this is that most index funds are highly diversified. They buy and hold identical weights of each stock in an index, such as the S&P 500.
If the average dividend yield of your portfolio is 4%, you'd need a substantial investment to generate $3,000 per month. To be precise, you'd need an investment of $900,000. This is calculated as follows: $3,000 X 12 months = $36,000 per year.
The worst 10 year annual return was a loss of almost 5% per year ending in the summer of 1939. That was bad enough for a 10 year total return of -40%.
Consider if an investor put their money in the S&P 500. Historically, it has averaged 11.5% returns between 1928 and 2022. In 6.4 years, their money would double, assuming these average returns.
The answer if you just starting out is an unequivocal yes. Even though I am both by nature and training a contrarian trader, for whom buying at what could well be the top of a move feels inherently wrong, that isn't a factor when it comes to long-term regular investing.
| Period | Period Low | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-Year | 348.11 +48.22% on 10/13/22 | Period Open: 420.07 |
| 3-Year | 348.11 +48.45% on 10/10/22 | Period Open: 389.48 |
| 5-Year | 218.26 +136.77% on 03/23/20 | Period Open: 279.25 |
| 10-Year | 181.02 +185.48% on 01/01/16 | Period Open: 187.01 |
That's because your investment gives you access to the broad stock market. Meanwhile, if you only invest in S&P 500 ETFs, you won't beat the broad market. Rather, you can expect your portfolio's performance to be in line with that of the broad market.
Can you live off the S&P 500?
Once you have $1 million in assets, you can look seriously at living entirely off the returns of a portfolio. After all, the S&P 500 alone averages 10% returns per year. Setting aside taxes and down-year investment portfolio management, a $1 million index fund could provide $100,000 annually.
| Recession Start Date | S&P 500 Peak Decline |
|---|---|
| March 2001 | (37%) |
| December 2007 | (57%) |
| February 2020 | (34%) |
| Average | (31%) |
According to our calculations, a $1000 investment made in February 2014 would be worth $5,971.20, or a gain of 497.12%, as of February 5, 2024, and this return excludes dividends but includes price increases. Compare this to the S&P 500's rally of 178.17% and gold's return of 55.50% over the same time frame.
Can an S&P 500 index fund investor lose all their money? Anything is possible, of course, but it's highly unlikely. For an S&P 500 investor to lose all of their money, every stock in the 500 company index would have to crash to zero.
In 1980, had you invested a mere $1,000 in what went on to become the top-performing stock of S&P 500, then you would be sitting on a cool $1.2 million today.
Historically, the stock market has an average annual rate of return between 10–12%. So if your $1 million is invested in good growth stock mutual funds, that means you could potentially live off of $100,000 to $120,000 each year without ever touching your one-million-dollar goose.
You'd need to invest around $13,000 per month to save a million dollars in five years, assuming a 7% annual rate of return and 3% inflation rate. For a rate of return of 5%, you'd need to save around $14,700 per month.
To save a million dollars in 30 years, you'll need to deposit around $850 a month. If you make $50k a year, that's roughly 20% of your pre-tax income. If you can't afford that now then you may want to dissect your expenses to see where you can cut, but if that doesn't work then saving something is better than nothing.
The Henssler philosophy is that any money a client needs within 10 years should be invested in fixed income securities, and any money not needed within 10 years should be invested in high‐quality, individual common stocks or mutual funds that invest in common stocks.
- Certificates of deposit (CDs) and share certificates.
- Money market accounts.
- Treasury securities.
- Series I bonds.
- Municipal bonds.
- Corporate bonds.
- Money market funds.
- Dividend stocks.
What is the average annual return if someone invested 100% in stocks?
The average annual return for investing 100% bonds and 100% stocks has been around 3-5% and 8-10% respectively. The range of 10% bond and 90% stock is wider as stocks are generally riskier than bonds.
Buffett has said that he's advised his wife to invest all her money in the S&P 500 after his death. It's simple to calculate how much money you'd have today if you did just that 20 years ago with $10,000. The total would be more than $65,000, which implies a return of 555%.
Think About This: $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2000 would have grown to $32,527 over 20 years — an average return of 6.07% per year.
We saw in the previous section that investing in the S&P 500 has historically allowed investors to double their money about every six or seven years. Your initial $1,000 investment will grow to $2,000 by year 7, $4,000 by year 14, and $6,000 by year 18.
Analysts expect overall S&P 500 earnings to rise 9.5% in 2024 after increasing around 4% in 2023, LSEG data showed. But valuations have risen along with stock prices.
